Last week the focus was on the Bank of England’s no-deal Brexit scenarios. This week it will be Parliament in the lime-light. Entrenched. The BoE’s Brexit scenarios have been viewed by some as political fear-mongering. Carney’s testimony to the Treasury Select Committee aimed to dispel the notion, stressing that Brexit scenarios are not the most likely comes....Read More
The UK Treasury painted a downbeat picture for the UK economy in the event of a no-Brexit deal but was surpassed by an even more pessimistic prognosis from the Bank of England. Still, all major UK banks passed the latest annual stress tests assuming a worst case scenario, highlighting significantly enhanced capital positions. Well, you did...Read More
The publication of a draft EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement puts down on paper the debates of the last 18 months. Its progress is far from assured, but we were also given a glimpse of what the future might look like from the accompanying political declaration. Here’s our take on the key points along with the latest...Read More
UK GDP growth picked up in Q3 but this bounce is likely to be fleeting, judging from latest downbeat business surveys. Rebound. UK GDP growth bounced back from a weak first half of 2018 to a strong 0.6% expansion in Q3. Most parts of the economy contributed with growth from services, construction and manufacturing....Read More
The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement was rubber stamped by the EU 27 leaders on Sunday after 20 months of negotiation. Yet the agreement might be entering the most difficult phase of its life as it’s unclear how the legislation will get through Parliament with so many MPs saying they’ll vote against it. Prime Minister Theresa May...Read More
The Bank of England’s latest forecasts show inflation staying above the 2% target, despite rising UK rate expectations. Prices should get a further boost from the looser fiscal policy announced in the Budget. But, as ever, all those forecasts hinge on a smooth Brexit. Warming up. The MPC didn’t raise rates last week, but it...Read More
Aided by the biggest upgrade to the OBR’s fiscal forecast in five years, the Chancellor held out the promise of a brighter future in his third Budget. Far from a Halloween horror show, Mr Hammond heralded the end of austerity by confirming a huge injection of funding into the health service and other tax and...Read More
Latest monthly UK PMI surveys were upbeat, hinting at firmer Q3 GDP. Increasing skill shortages suggest a pick-up in wage growth in coming months, supportive for cash strapped consumers. Scarcity. Economics is, partly, the study of scarce resources. Well, UK employers are starting to get a first hand taste. Respondents to last month’s services...Read More
A fresh Parliamentary term but the top agenda item is most definitely familiar. Brexit will again be all-consuming in the coming months, and far beyond. Prepared? The UK Government has published initial technical notices outlining preparations for a “no deal” Brexit which cover a wide number of areas: EU funding, nuclear research and regulation,...Read More
The UK’s encouraging fiscal position provides Chancellor Hammond with more room for manoeuvre in his upcoming autumn statement. Breakthrough? The US and Mexico have agreed a bilateral trade deal but Canada has not signed up. The two sides agreed on stricter rules for Mexican exports to the US but details are sparse. This...Read More
