Inflation is pushing UK consumers to take it easy at the shops meaning they’re no longer leading the charge on growth.  Meanwhile new technology is shaking up the long established order in world oil markets. Feel the burn.  Retail sales disappointed last month, rising just 0.1% from December. And the underlying pattern continues to point...Read More

While two of the SpaceX rocket boosters landed gently back on terra firma it was a much more turbulent period in the markets. US equities had their worst week in two years and volatility woke from its slumber. The Bank of England also gave the markets a little shake, indicating a rate hike in May...Read More

Economic news from the Eurozone and the US was generally very good last week.  As a result, Bond yields are pushing higher.  That’s good news for people worrying about the possibility of more years of slow growth and low interest rates, sometimes called secular stagnation. It’s also a relief to the many firms grappling with...Read More

Good growth from around the world supports the celebratory tone being struck by leaders in Davos. Optimistic. The World Economic Forum meetings in Davos got off to a flying start with the IMF declaring world growth last year was the best for five years. Even better, it is set to be stronger this year and...Read More

The pre-Christmas shopping rush seems to have conincided with inflation’s peak. Consumers and retailers alike will be hoping for an easier ride this year. Cooling. Inflation looks to have passed its peak. Consumer prices rose by 3.0% in the year to December, down from 3.1% in November. Much of last year’s elevated inflation was due...Read More

A New Year, so an opportune time to do a bit of a stocktake. In this extended brief, we take a look back at 2017 and ahead to 2018. Growth and Labour Market Downslope. How does the UK economy’s performance in 2017 stack-up?  We won’t know definitively for a few weeks, but it looks as...Read More

The big let down of the post-crisis recovery has been the failure of wage growth to ignite in the face of an ever-tigthening labour market. Will 2018 finally be the year it changes?  Prolonging the recovery might depend on it. Service charge included.  The UK economy’s largest sector is losing momentum as it approaches year...Read More

After the sobering downgrade to our prospects for productivity growth comes the scramble for solutions. The new industrial strategy, if fulfilled, is a good place to start.   Thinking ahead. If Britain’s productivity matched the world’s best we’d be £10,000 a year better off on average. The new industrial strategy aims to win this prize with...Read More

Last week the UK got a downgrade. Its growth prospects were slashed by the Office for Budget Responsibility in the all important area of productivity. If it’s correct, the country faces another decade of very challenging economic circumstances having just gone through one following the financial crisis. Sobering stuff. The stamp duty change grabbed much...Read More

Productivity growth – the UK’s Achilles heel – strikes again. The downgrade by the OBR in the UK’s ability to generate productivity improvements in the coming years was striking. With our prospects diminished it left the Chancellor with little room for big giveaways. But at least first-time buyers will rejoice! Ouch. The Office for Budget...Read More